Dự báo từ nay đến cuối năm 2018 giá cà phê và cacao sẽ tăng, đường khó thoát giảm

Reuters news agency has surveyed businesses and reputable analysts in the field of soft goods, the results show that prices for coffee and cocoa will increase, while sugar will decrease.
  Coffee prices will increase due to the drought in Brazil and the real increase
 
Survey results at 11 businesses and analysts show that prices for arabica coffee will increase by 22% by the end of 2018 due to fears of dry weather in Brazil - the world's No. 1 producer - and the domestic currency. This can be very volatile.
It is forecasted that spot arabica coffee prices will average 1.30 USD / lb at the end of 2018, which is 21.8% higher than August 2, 2018. This price is lower than the USD 1,3443 forecast in February 2018.

"We think that when the elections in Brazil come close, the real will get stronger, so arabica coffee when converted into USD will be more expensive," said Shawn Hackett, chairman of Hackett Financial Advisory Association in Florida. know.

Experts predict that real will fluctuate strongly in the direction of increasing, pulling arabica prices up. "We think that the current drought in Brazil will affect the flowering period (September - November) and later, when the plants need favorable conditions to recover," Hackett said. more.

Brazilian coffee production in the 2019/2020 season is expected to reach 54.5 million bags, of which 38 million Arabica bags and 17 million robusta bags, lower than the 60 million bags of the 2018/19 crop (when 43 million bags of arabica are available). and 16 million robusta bags).

Another factor that will contribute to the increase in coffee prices is the El Nino weather phenomenon this year, which may make Indonesia - the fourth largest producer in the world - drier than every year.

The output of Vietnam - the second largest producer - is forecasted by the International Coffee Organization to reach 28.5 million bags in the period of 2018/19, down from the record of 29.5 million bags of the previous crop (the experts surveyed by Reuters forecast about 27 to 32 million bags).

The global supply of coffee is forecast to be in excess of 5 million bags in the 2018/19 season (experts predict from balance to excess of 14 million bags). However, with the 2019/2020 crop, the forecast is very big, from a shortage of 5 million bags to a surplus of 10 million bags, averaging the supply-demand balance.

Sugar prices will fall sharply due to high production

Survey results show that businesses and analysts expect world sugar prices to recover slightly in the coming months, but overall this year is still down sharply from last year, because of more supply than expected. to excess.

It is forecasted that sugar prices will recover slightly compared to the lowest level of 3 years at the moment, but the market still has the risk of further decline.

The spot price of raw sugar is expected to end in the third quarter of 2018 at 11.50 US cents / lb, and will end in 2018 at 12 US cents, up 14.5% from the price on August 2, 2018, but still down nearly 21% from a year earlier.

White sugar is expected to end in quarter 3/2018 at 326 USD / ton, and end in 2018 at 330 USD / ton, up about 5% compared to August 2, 2018, but also down about 16% compared to one last year.

Sugar prices have continued to decline this year because of increased production forecast in producing countries such as India, Thailand and the European Union. The surplus of the world sugar balance in 2017/18 is about 10.8 million tons, more than the 8.2 million tons that Reuters predicted (through survey results) in February 2018.

In 2018/19 the market is expected to continue to have surplus of about 6 million tons, also higher than the level of 5 million tons launched in February 2018.

Brazil's output may be affected by prolonged drought this season. Central south Brazil is expected to produce 566.5 million tons of sugarcane in 2018/19, and will spend 28.5% to produce sugar. However, any decline in Brazil is offset by other places, so the possibility of recovery is limited.

India may export excess volume at the same time that any export to the world will cause a price drop in the remaining months of this year. This water production is expected to reach 32.1 million tons in 2017/18, and 33.8 million tons in 2018/19.